基本原理,概念及评估办法

引言 人们普遍认为,全球气候变暖在北极将进一步放大,由于平流层臭氧修复的可能延误,紫外线B(UV-B)辐射可能继续增加,北极环境及其居民可能特别易受这类环境变化的影响.上述共识促进了对气候变化影响的国际评估工作.北极气候影响评估(ACIA)是一项为时4年的研究,结果出版了一篇重要的科研报告[1]并产生了其他的成果.在本文以及本期Ambio专刊下面的文章中,我们提供了报告中针对北极陆地生态系统(从树线群落交错带到极地荒漠)的部分研究成果.     

1961～2000年瑞典地区极端降水的空间分析

本文分析了瑞典地区1961～2000年极端日降水量的空间尺度、区域变化和与之相关的天气类型.根据30km滞后距离计算的统计相关图估计年平均降水量、日降水量的99%分位值和平均年最大日雨量变化的空间尺度分别为100km、60～100km和40～70km.采用最大相似因子分析方法确定了82个站点极端降水量的区域相关.并发现有11个因子可以提供给最佳因子解决方案.极端事件发生时的天气类型是根据以逐日海平面气压为基础的客观系统划分的,并经过主观(包括锋面)修正.总体来看,极端降水事件的发生,63%在气旋类天气,32%在锋面类天气,3%在定向类天气,2%在反气旋类天气.然而,极端事件各种天气类型的发生频次不同地区之间有所不同.     

Fruit traits and temporal abundance shape plant-frugivore interaction networks in a seasonal tropical forest

Interactions between fleshy fruited plants and frugivores are crucial for the structuring and functioning of biotic communities, particularly in tropical forests where both groups are diverse and play different roles in network organization. However, it remains poorly understood how different groups of frugivore species and fruit traits contribute to network structure. We recorded interactions among 28 plant species and three groups of frugivores (birds, bats, and non-flying mammals) in a seasonal forest in Mexico to determine which species contribute more to network structure and evaluate the importance of each species. We also determined whether fruit abundance, water content, morphology traits, and fruiting phenology are related to network parameters: the number of interactions, species contribution to nestedness, and species strength. We found that plants did not depend on a single group of frugivores, but rather on one species of each group: the bird Pitangus sulphuratus, the bat Sturnira parvidens, and the non-flying mammal Procyon lotor. The abundance, size, and water content of the fruits were significantly related to the contribution to nestedness, number of interactions, and species strength index of plant species. Tree species and birds contributed mainly to the nested structure of the network. We show that the structure of plant-frugivore networks in this seasonal forest is non-random and that fruit traits (i.e., abundance, phenology, size, and water content) are important factors shaping plant-frugivore networks. Identification of the key species and their traits that maintain the complex structure of species interactions is therefore fundamental for the integral conservation of tropical forests.     

Fenton (H2O2/Fe) reaction involved in Penicillium sp. culture for DDT [1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl)ethane)] degradation

The purpose of this work was to demonstrate that a Fenton (H₂O₂/Fe) reaction was involved in DDT [1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl)ethane)] degradation in a culture of Penicillium sp. spiked with FeSO₄. A commercial DDT mixture (10% DDE [1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl)ethylene], 30% o,p-DDT and 60% of p,p′ -DDT) of 10 mg L^{? 1} was used. Hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂), tartaric acid and oxalic acid were identified at 18 h in culture media, with and without added DDT; this correlated positively with lowering of pH from 5.8 to 2.7. Lower concentrations of oxalic acid and H₂O₂ (7.9 and 52.6 mg L^{? 1}, respectively) occurred in media with DDT at 30 h, in comparison to that one without DDT mixture (27.9 and 65.3 mg L^{? 1}, respectively), at this time there was maximum degradation (87.7, 91.7 and 94.2%) for DDE, o,p-DDT and p,p′-DDT, respectively. We propose that the degradation of the DDT mixture by Penicillium sp. was through a Fenton reaction (H₂O₂/Fe) under acidic conditions produced in situ during the fungal culture amended with FeSO₄.     

The effects of congestions tax on air quality and health

The “Stockholm Trial” involved a road pricing system to improve the air quality and reduce traffic congestion. The test period of the trial was January 3–July 31, 2006. Vehicles travelling into and out of the charge cordon were charged for every passage during weekdays. The amount due varied during the day and was highest during rush hours (20 SEK = 2.2 EUR, maximum 60 SEK per day). Based on measured and modelled changes in road traffic it was estimated that this system resulted in a 15% reduction in total road use within the charged cordon. Total traffic emissions in this area of NO_x and PM10 fell by 8.5% and 13%, respectively. Air quality dispersion modelling was applied to assess the effect of the emission reductions on ambient concentrations and population exposure. For the situations with and without the trial, meteorological conditions and other emissions than from road traffic were kept the same. The calculations show that, with a permanent congestion tax system like the Stockholm Trial, the annual average NO_x concentrations would be lower by up to 12% along the most densely trafficked streets. PM10 concentrations would be up to 7% lower. The limit values for both PM10 and NO₂ would still be exceeded along the most densely trafficked streets. The total population exposure of NO_x in Greater Stockholm (35 × 35 km with 1.44 million people) is estimated to decrease with a rather modest 0.23 μg m^?3. However, based on a long-term epidemiological study, that found an increased mortality risk of 8% per 10 μg m^?3 NO_x, it is estimated that 27 premature deaths would be avoided every year. According to life-table analysis this would correspond to 206 years of life gained over 10 years per 100 000 people following the trial if the effects on exposures would persist. The effect on mortality is attributed to road traffic emissions (likely vehicle exhaust particles); NO_x is merely regarded as an indicator of traffic exposure. This is only the tip of the ice-berg since reductions are expected in both respiratory and cardiovascular morbidity. This study demonstrates the importance of not only assessing the effects on air quality limit values, but also to make quantitative estimates of health impacts, in order to justify actions to reduce air pollution.     

Variability in Three Finnish Integrated Acidification Models

Integrated assessment models have been used to support ofnegotiations for further emission reductions of acidifyingcompounds in Europe. More attention is being paid to theuncertainties in integrated models. Data from three Finnishintegrated acidification models were compiled to estimate thevariation and relative importance of different modules. Themodels included site-specific and regional dynamic simulationsand steady-state critical load calculations for forest soilsand lakes. The main emphasis was on the variability ofemissions and the uncertainties in ecosystem effects. Althoughmaximum technically feasible emission reduction measures cantheoretically result in very low deposition, the variabilitybetween realistic scenarios is rather restricted. Thevariability of deposition loading is largely determined byreductions in nearby emission sources. The dynamicsimulations, which are often based on detailed input data,seem to retain larger variability than steady-state criticalload approaches. This study suggests that the uncertainties ineffects seem to be larger generally than other modules ofintegrated acidification models. The results indicate the needfor further work on uncertainty analysis for integrated modelsand the availability of useful model systems for furtherconfirmation of ecosystem effects.     

Concentration of some heavy metals in organically grown primitive, old and modern wheat genotypes: implications for human health

The concentration of six HMs (Cd, Cr, Co, Pb, Hg and Ni) was analysed in 321 organically grown winter and spring wheat genotypes from six genotype groups, i.e. selections, old landraces, primitive wheat, spelt, old cultivars and cultivars. Also the potential risk of individual toxic HM to human health was estimated by using the Hazard Quotient (HQ). Significantly the lowest grain concentration of Cd was found in primitive wheat as compared to all other investigated genotype groups. Intake of HM by consumption of whole wheat grain was not found to pose a health risk to human for any of the investigated genotype groups. The bio-concentration factor of Cd for the different genotype groups indicated a lower ability to accumulate Cd for primitive wheat as compared to other genotype groups. The primitive wheat was found the most promising and might be of interest in future wheat breeding programs to develop wheat genotypes with low HMs concentration in the grain.     

Should apple snail Pomacea canaliculata (Caenogastropoda, Ampullariidae) be used as bioindicator for BDE-209?

Apple snail Pomacea canaliculata has been reported to accumulate polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and was recently proposed as PBDE bioindicator. This work investigates the ability of P. canaliculata to accumulate BDE-209 by dietary exposure under controlled experimental conditions. A 30-day long enrichment feeding assay was carried out using 30 adult apple snails, placed in individual aquaria. Food was enriched at three BDE-209 concentrations (400, 4,700, and 8,300 μg g^?1 lipid weight). Correlation between BDE-209 values in food and snail tissue were estimated according to Stockholm Convention suggested criteria for chemicals with K_OW >5. All animals survived with no evident physical alterations, and all of them accumulated BDE-209. BDE-209 levels in tissue samples increased exponentially with the exposure concentration. The bioaccumulation factor vs. food concentration plot showed a peculiar pattern, in which at intermediate concentrations the snails accumulated less BDE-209 than expected. Our results suggest that P. canaliculata would present a detoxification mechanism for BDE-209 different from the most commonly reported metabolic pathways.